Florida Moves Back to the Top With Kentucky; SEC Update (November 7)

Anytime the top two teams in the conference square off and they are both ranked in the top 10 of the country, it’s a pretty big move for that league. That’s exactly what happened last week as Florida went to Lexington and swept Kentucky to get revenge after the Wildcats downed the Gators in Gainesville earlier in the season.

The result is that both teams now have one conference loss and Florida is currently in the top spot of the SEC since they have played one more match. It also sets things up that we could have a split SEC title after the same happened a year ago when Florida was even with Missouri.

Beyond the intriguing top of the conference, teams sitting behind them have interesting cases for the NCAA Tournament as the league will boast plenty of bubble teams come selection day as the final three weeks of the season will heavily influence who is on the right side of that bubble.

More analysis after the SEC table:

SEC Volleyball Standings (As of November 7, 2017):

Making moves back to the top: Florida (12-1 Conference Record)

Florida was a match behind Kentucky coming into the week, but a win in Lexington changed that around by putting them into a tie in the loss column and ahead with one more match played. Now they look to finish off the rest of their SEC schedule, notably that features two matches with Missouri including the regular season finale on the road which will be a very tough match.

Beyond the race for the SEC championship, Florida has aspirations of getting ranked in the top four by the NCAA Tournament committee and hosting through the Elite Eight. They were listed as #6 last week by the committee, but that didn’t take into account their win over Kentucky, who was five. That means they are right on the cusp of getting that top four, so they will need to win out.

Remaining schedule:

• vs. Arkansas (7-6)
• vs. Missouri (9-3)
• at Texas A&M (4-9)
• vs. Auburn (6-7)
• at Missouri (9-3)

Still sticking around the top spot: Kentucky (11-1 Conference Record)

Even though Kentucky lost the match at home to Florida, their earlier work with a win in Gainesville has them even with the Gators in the loss column. That means if they win out, the worst they can do is get a split for the SEC title. Four of their final six come on the road as no heavyweight is on the schedule, although all of their opponents are solid teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble in need of a win.

Just like Florida, Kentucky has aspirations to host and should be good to go for the first two rounds. They still have an outside shot at a top four if they win out and get some help – such as a Florida loss and some carnage from the top three Big Ten teams.

Remaining schedule:

• at Alabama (4-8)
• at Auburn (6-6)
• vs. Georgia (7-6)
• vs. Ole Miss (6-7)
• at Arkansas (7-6)
• at Georgia (7-6)

Continuing to impress in SEC play: Missouri (9-3 Conference Record)

After just a 7-6 non-conference slate, Missouri has picked up their play and turned things around in conference play as they sit in third of the SEC. Their improvement also had them at 36 in the RPI this week, putting them in a solid position to make the NCAA Tournament. They can really secure that with a win over Florida, who they play twice as beyond that they will look to take care of business. At the very least, they should have the strong advantage for a top three finish in the conference after earning a split title last year.

Remaining schedule:

• at South Carolina (4-8)
• at Florida (12-1)
• at Mississippi State (0-13)
• vs. Arkansas (7-6)
• vs. Alabama (4-8)
• vs. Florida (12-1)

Bubble teams:

LSU (8-5 Conference Record)

LSU actually has a better RPI than Missouri at 35, so should be good as well. They sit in fourth of the SEC just behind Missouri and are all done playing the top three in the conference. Although three of their final five are on the road, the schedule sets up that they should win four or five matches, which would all but guarantee their spot in the NCAA Tournament and a top three or four finish in the SEC.

Remaining schedule:

• at Mississippi State (0-13)
• vs. Auburn (6-6)
• at Alabama (4-8)
• vs. Georgia (7-6)
• at Tennessee (4-9)

Arkansas (7-6 Conference Record)

The Razorbacks looked solid in the non-conference and through points of SEC play, but has dropped a few matches they wish they could have back. Now at 7-6 in SEC play and ranked 45 in the RPI, they need a strong finish. The opportunities are in front of them with all three of the top SEC teams on the ledger (and two at home), but it won’t be easy. If they can go 4-1 they should be good for the NCAA Tournament, as 3-2 might even be enough if one of those wins came against Florida or Kentucky.

Remaining schedule:

• at Florida (12-1)
• at South Carolina (4-8)
• vs. Missouri (9-3)
• vs. Kentucky (11-1)
• vs. Auburn (6-6)

Auburn (6-6 Conference Record)

In terms of RPI, Auburn is looking good at 38, but they’ve been fading a bit of late. They also play at Florida, vs. Kentucky, at LSU and at Arkansas, all difficult matches to finish the regular season. Ideally they might need to go 4-2 in this span to secure a spot, but 3-3 would keep them on the bubble and leave things up in the air for their NCAA Tournament hopes.

Remaining schedule:

• vs. Tennessee (4-9)
• vs. Kentucky (11-1)
• at LSU (8-5)
• vs. Mississippi State (0-13)
• at Florida (12-1)
• at Arkansas (7-6)

Hanging by a thread:

Georgia (7-6 Conference Record)

Georgia has a solid 17-9 overall record and are part of the upper-half in the SEC. However, they didn’t play the toughest non-conference schedule and their RPI is just 60. That puts them on the wrong side of the bubble but the opportunity is in front of them with two matches against Kentucky and one at LSU. Their final week of play may determine their NCAA Tournament standing.

Remaining schedule:

• vs. Ole Miss (6-7)
• at Kentucky (11-1)
• at Tennessee (4-9)
• at LSU (8-5)
• vs. Kentucky (11-1)

Ole Miss (6-7 Conference Record)

Ole Miss comes in at 70 in the RPI so seems to be a bit off from having a chance at the NCAA Tournament. That said, if they can take care of the three four-win SEC teams and earn a win at Kentucky or Georgia, they may get thrown into the discussion.

Remaining schedule:

• at Georgia (7-6)
• vs. Texas A&M (4-9)
• at Tennessee (4-9)
• at Kentucky (11-1)
• vs. South Carolina (4-8)

Alabama (4-8 Conference Record)

The Crimson Tide are better off than Georgia in RPI at 54, but with just a 4-8 conference record it’d be hard for the NCAA Tournament committee to let them in the big dance. If they can finish up 4-2 or 5-1 in the final six, they’d give themselves a chance, especially if they could upend Kentucky.

Remaining schedule:

• vs. Kentucky (11-1)
• vs. Tennessee (4-9)
• at South Carolina (4-8)
• vs. LSU (8-5)
• at Missouri (9-3)
• vs. Texas A&M (4-9)

Texas A&M (4-9 Conference Record)

It’s odd that we are even discussing Texas A&M as being a part of the wrong side of the bubble as they are just 7-13 and 4-9 in conference play. Based on RPI though, they come in at 48. This is where the eye test and record comes in though to the selection committee which will likely keep the Aggies out. That said, if they can upset Florida the rest of the schedule is manageable and maybe they could scoot their RPI into the top 35 by winning four of five and have a chance.

Remaining schedule:

• at Ole Miss (6-7)
• vs. Florida (12-1)
• vs. South Carolina (4-8)
• at Mississippi State (0-13)
• at Alabama (4-8)

With all of these bubble teams in the SEC, not only will the conference create some interesting headlines on Selection Sunday, but they will also populate the new NIVC tournament which will take many of the best teams not in the NCAA Tournament.