Western Kentucky and North Texas Hold C-USA Title Aspirations; C-USA Update (Nov. 8)

It’s the final week of the Conference USA regular season, and while the conference tournament awaits to sort even more out, the race for the regular season crown will come to a conclusion – possibly even on Thursday night.

Western Kentucky and North Texas are the only schools still with potential to win the conference championship, as the Hilltoppers are the lone unbeaten while the Mean Green have just one conference blemish. Sure enough, they play on Thursday as Western Kentucky can clinch the C-USA title while North Texas can open up the possibility of a split.

Of course though, the regular season championship has less meaning from an NCAA Tournament perspective as the winner of the C-USA Tournament gets the automatic bid. Western Kentucky should be fine in that regards no matter what, but for North Texas they sit on the bubble and could use that automatic berth.

More analysis after the C-USA table:

C-USA Volleyball Standings (As of November 8, 2017):

Almost there: Western Kentucky (13-0 Conference Record)

The Hilltoppers are so close to not just winning the conference, but finishing unbeaten in C-USA action. Just one regular season match remains against North Texas as a win would accomplish that and give them the 1-seed to the conference tournament.

They rank 32 in RPI coming into this week as well, meaning if they win all the way to the C-USA finals and drop one there, they should still make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. Even if they lose to North Texas and are bounced in the C-USA tournament they’d have a solid shot at making it. Beyond that though, it’s just one more for Western Kentucky as they look for yet another conference championship.

Remaining schedule:

• at North Texas (11-1)
• C-USA Quarterfinals
• C-USA Semifinals*
• C-USA Finals*

Still got a chance: North Texas (11-1)

North Texas has a huge opportunity in front of them going against Western Kentucky. A win would put the two even in the loss column and would give the Mean Green a chance for the C-USA regular season crown if they could defeat Middle Tennessee as well. Not only that, but if North Texas were to win out in the regular season and force the conference title split, they would actually be the team awarded the one seed for the C-USA tournament off of the tiebreaker.

In terms of their at-large bid chances, they rank 55 in the latest RPI. That puts them on the bubble – and likely the wrong side for the time being. A good way to view things though is if they can beat Western Kentucky once (either this week) or in the conference championship, they’d either significantly boost their chances or secure them of making the NCAA Tournament. Regardless though, those recipes involve winning every other match in addition to one against Western Kentucky so they will need to be sharp.

Remaining schedule:

• vs. Western Kentucky (13-0)
• vs. Middle Tennessee State (2-10)
• C-USA Quarterfinals
• C-USA Semifinals*
• C-USA Finals*

Still got a chance: North Texas (11-1)

North Texas has a huge opportunity in front of them going against Western Kentucky. A win would put the two even in the loss column and would give the Mean Green a chance for the C-USA regular season crown if they could defeat Middle Tennessee as well. Not only that, but if North Texas were to win out in the regular season and force the conference title split, they would actually be the team awarded the one seed for the C-USA tournament off of the tiebreaker.

In terms of their at-large bid chances, they rank 55 in the latest RPI. That puts them on the bubble – and likely the wrong side for the time being. A good way to view things though is if they can beat Western Kentucky once (either this week) or in the conference championship, they’d either significantly boost their chances or secure them of making the NCAA Tournament. Regardless though, those recipes involve winning every other match in addition to one against Western Kentucky so they will need to be sharp.

Remaining schedule:

• vs. Western Kentucky (13-0)
• vs. Middle Tennessee State (2-10)
• C-USA Quarterfinals
• C-USA Semifinals*
• C-USA Finals*

Trying to work around the bubble: Rice (10-3 Conference Record)

If North Texas is on the bubble, Rice is on the edge of things as they sit at 66 in this week’s edition of the RPI. There only chance at this point may be to win the C-USA tournament coming up where they will have a favored first round game before meeting either North Texas or Western Kentucky in the semifinals. That depends on the finish of those two as well as the Owls, who could be either third or fourth in the standings.

Whatever chance they would have as an at-large though may increase by their potential schedule. A road match with UTSA to determine the 3/4 seed gives them a match against 106 in the RPI and would follow a C-USA quarterfinal round against either Florida Atlantic (98) or Southern Miss (134). The kicker in this scenario as an at-large (meaning they could only win one more to just get to the C-USA finals since it wouldn’t be an automatic berth) is that they would need to see Western Kentucky in the semifinals for a marquee victory. Knowing that, they should be rooting for North Texas on Thursday night.

Remaining schedule:

• at UTSA (9-3)
• C-USA Quarterfinals
• C-USA Semifinals*
• C-USA Finals*

Trying to work around the bubble: Rice (10-3 Conference Record)

If North Texas is on the bubble, Rice is on the edge of things as they sit at 66 in this week’s edition of the RPI. There only chance at this point may be to win the C-USA tournament coming up where they will have a favored first round game before meeting either North Texas or Western Kentucky in the semifinals. That depends on the finish of those two as well as the Owls, who could be either third or fourth in the standings.

Whatever chance they would have as an at-large though may increase by their potential schedule. A road match with UTSA to determine the 3/4 seed gives them a match against 106 in the RPI and would follow a C-USA quarterfinal round against either Florida Atlantic (98) or Southern Miss (134). The kicker in this scenario as an at-large (meaning they could only win one more to just get to the C-USA finals since it wouldn’t be an automatic berth) is that they would need to see Western Kentucky in the semifinals for a marquee victory. Knowing that, they should be rooting for North Texas on Thursday night.

Remaining schedule:

• at UTSA (9-3)
• C-USA Quarterfinals
• C-USA Semifinals*
• C-USA Finals*

Fighting for seeding: UTSA (9-3), Florida Atlantic (7-5), Southern Miss (7-5)

These three teams wrap up C-USA play this week with opportunities to move up or down a spot in the conference standings. None of the three have chances to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, so it will all ride on the C-USA Tournament. With that in mind, they will be jockeying for higher seeds as UTSA can get the 3 seed or the four (since they own tiebreakers over FAU and Southern Miss) while the Owls and Golden Eagles are fighting for the 5/6 seed.

The race to make the C-USA Tournament: Charlotte (5-7), Marshall (5-7), UAB (4-8)

Of the 13 teams in Conference USA, eight make the tournament next week. With the top six well established, two spots would remain for everyone else to duke it out for. The bottom four in the standings though are eliminated, meaning it comes down to three schools for a pair of slots. Marshall currently owns the tiebreaker over Charlotte while Charlotte owns the tiebreaker over UAB.

In terms of final schedules, Charlotte has the tough task of playing at UTSA (9-3) and vs. FAU (7-5). The good news for them though is Marshall and UAB will inflict some damage against one or the other, as after Marshall meets bottom-dweller UTEP (2-11) and UAB plays FAU (7-5), the two schools face off for what could determine the final team in the C-USA tournament.