No Changes in Big Ten Title Race; Purdue With a Chance at Spoiler

There were no missteps by the top 3 teams in the Big Ten last weekend, with Penn State (13 game winning streak), Nebraska (7 game winning streak), and Minnesota (11 game winning streak) all holding strong with 6 games to go in conference play.

• Last Week’s Breakdown
• Key Game of the Week: Minnesota vs. Purdue, 4:30 Central, West Lafayette, Indiana

The same can’t be said for 4th-place Michigan State, who went 1-1 on the weekend with the loss coming to top-ranked Penn State in East Lansing.

The Spartans still aren’t quite eliminated from contention for the conference title, as their last 6 games are all against teams with worse conference records (they avoid the 3 big dogs down the home stretch), but they’ll need a lot of help at this point and for all three of the conference leaders to go cold. At the same time.

But we’ll leave them in the conversation for what is largely a 3-horse race this weekend. Most of the top teams have relatively easy schedules this week, so other than the possible elimination of Michigan State from contention (they play Illinois on Friday), or Purdue pulling off an upset, we won’t learn much about the Big Ten Conference title race this week.

Breakdown below the table:

#1 in the Nation: Penn State (13-1 Conference, 23-1 Overall)

The Nittany Lions are #1 in the nation, and though they’re graphically on top of the above table, they don’t (and can’t) hold the tie-breaker against Nebraska. That’s because the Huskers won the teams’ only matchup of the season by a 3-0 sweep. With games against Iowa and Maryland, both of whom are only 5-9 in the Big Ten this season, there’s not much that Penn State can do to improve their chances at their first Big Ten title since 2013 this weekend, besides simply ‘win.’ Dominant wins would help even more.

Simone Lee and Haleigh Washington have a chance to do some damage in their hunt for First Team All-America, or even National Player of the Year, race. Maryland and Iowa both have strengths on defense, though, so it won’t necessarily be an opportunity for either to ‘pad stats’ moreso than ‘play well against good defenses.’

Their remaining opponents have a 30-54 record in the Big Ten. They close against Wisconsin and Minnesota, though. That’s where all Nittany Lion eyes are right now.

Remaining Schedule (Record in Big Ten):

• @Iowa (3-11 Big Ten)
• Maryland (5-9 Big Ten)
• Indiana (1-13 Big Ten)
• @Rutgers (0-14 Big Ten)
• @Wisconsin (7-7 Big Ten)
• @Minnesota (12-2 Big Ten)

Overcoming Obstacles: Nebraska (13-1 Conference, 20-4 Overall)

Nebraska won their toughest remaining game over the weekend, beating Purdue (who was ranked 22nd in the AVCA poll, and just outside of the top 25 in VolleyMob’s power rankings). The Huskers now have no remaining games against Big Ten opponents, plus they hold the tie-breaker against Penn State.

The remaining schedule aren’t exactly gimmes. They still have Ohio State, who won a thriller against Wisconsin 3-2 on Friday in Madison, left on the schedule, but Nebraska will be a big favorite in each of their remaining 6 games (which neither Penn State nor Minnesota can say).

Their remaining opponents’ Big Ten record is 24-60.

Remaining Schedule (Record in Big Ten):

• Maryland (5-9 Big Ten)
• Rutgers (0-14 Big Ten)
• @Ohio State (6-8 Big Ten)
• @Maryland (5-9 Big Ten)
• @Northwestern (3-11 Big Ten)
• Iowa (3-11 Big Ten)

Set for Success: Minnesota (12-2 Conference, 23-2 Overall)

Minnesota has the toughest matchup of the top 3 teams this week, playing against Purdue in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers and their star Danielle Cuttino have played well at times against good teams this season. The Gophers won the teams’ first matchup 3-0, but will have to be careful of not falling into the trap of complacency against a talented team.

With a game also left against Penn State and Illinois, the Gophers’ remaining opponents have a 34-50 Big Ten record so far this season: the best of any team on this list.

Remaining Schedule (Record in Big Ten):

• @Purdue (8-6 Big Ten)
• @Indiana (1-13 Big Ten)
• @Northwestern (3-11 Big Ten)
• @Illinois (9-5 Big Ten)
• Rutgers (0-14 Big Ten)
• #1 Penn State (13-1 Big Ten)

Hanging On: Michigan State (10-4 Conference, 17-6 Overall)

The Spartans will receive an NCAA tournament invite, and, if they take care of business, should host an opening weekend in that tournament as well. Unfortunately, what happens beyond that is largely out of their hands.

The Spartans play Illinois on Friday, which is a big one for determining 4th in the conference (the 4th-place Big Ten team should get a national seed). After that, they have a few tricky games against Michigan and Purdue. The Spartans’ biggest challenge in climbing their way back into the title hunt is that they don’t have the opportunity to knock off any of the teams ahead of them and make up a full game in one fell swoop, and aside from the Minnesota/Penn State game, the teams above them don’t have much of a chance to knock each other off either.

There’s still a mathematical possibility that they could win the title, but it’s a fairly long-shot. Their remaining opponents have a combined Big Ten record of 28-56.

Remaining Schedule (Record in Big Ten):

• Illinois (9-5 Big Ten)
• Northwestern (3-11 Big Ten)
• @Michigan (6-8 Big Ten)
• Indiana (1-13 Big Ten)
• @Purdue (8-6 Big Ten)
• @Indiana (1-13 Big Ten)

Big Ten Tie-Breaker (all positions)

TWO-TEAM TIE

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

2. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular season standings) continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• A. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• B. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1); in the case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000 the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

MULTIPLE-TEAM TIE

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

• A. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1); in the case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000 the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.
• B. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• A. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• B. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1); in the case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000 the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.