An ACC that looked like it had a clear favorite (North Carolina) coming into the year has turned into one of the most competitive conferences in the country. A near overnight turnaround for Louisville under first year head coach Dani Busboom Kelly, a Pitt resurgence even after big graduations, and surprising success at places like NC State, Syracuse, and Miami have left the conference upended. Meanwhile, UNC and Florida State, both teams in the top 25 early in the year, have struggled in conference play with 7-5 and 6-6 records, respectively.
So where is this conference going? Unlike the others that we’ve profiled this week, the Big Ten and Big 12, have clear-cut front runners. The ACC is legitimately wide open. With 8 games left in the conference schedule (for most teams), there are a minimum of 7 teams that are easily within striking distance of the ACC crown.
We’re taking a different approach to handicapping this race. Instead of words, we’re going to use math. We’re going to take a metaphorical 100 delegates, and allocate them to each team based on how many of our delegates think they could win the crown. Note that this doesn’t mean we necessarily think this will be the final conference finish order (for example, we don’t think UNC will win the conference, but we certainly think they can climb into the top 4).
The good news for all of those teams at the top – is that they’ve almost all got the chance to play their way to the title via head-to-head matchups with other contenders in the conference.
The bad news is that the ACC currently has no teams ranked in the top 25, and they only got 1 bid to last year’s NCAA tournament (North Carolina). They might sneak 2 in this year, but ultimately tie-breakers are going to be significant (at the end of this article).
ACC Likelihood of Winning (out of 100 metaphorical delegates)
- Louisville (30 delegates) – Offense struggling still won last 3 games
- NC State – (21 delegates) Kylie Pickrell is playing well. Arizona State transfer (came over with coach) that has been a key/missing(?) piece?
- Miami – (16 delegates)got hot again after impressive early run, and a pretty soft schedule remaining (relatively)
- Pitt – (16 delegates)have struggled against other top competition
- Syracuse (9 delegates) – toughest schedule left
- UNC (4 delegates) – nose dive
- Duke (2 delegates
- Florida State (1 delegates)
- Notre Dame (1 delegate)
More below the standings:
Louisville (10-2 Conference Record) – 30 Delegates
The Louisville Cardinals have been the most consistent team in the ACC this season. Since opening the year with back-to-back losses against Big Ten powerhouses Wisconsin and Minnesota, the Cardinals haven’t lost consecutive games all season. They do still have a few tough games left, but also get to play Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Boston College in the bottom-third of the league for half of their remaining schedule.
Here’s a really encouraging stat for the Cardinals: they have three-straight quality wins over Florida State, Notre Dame, and Pitt – and they got those wins in spite of having relatively low hitting percentages (.188, .169, .190). In 2 of those games they had big service days, which they’ve done all season (7, 11, and 2, respectively), but the ability of Louisville to scratch out wins even when their offense is struggling will give them confidence down the home stretch.
Most importantly – they hold tie-breakers over Miami and Pitt, and have a chance to take the tie-breaker at home against NC State on November 17th. They’re in the best position if it comes down to a tie for the title.
Remaining games (conference record):
- @Wake Forest (3-9 ACC)
- @Duke (7-5 ACC)
- Virginia (1-11 ACC)
- Virginia Tech (2-9 ACC)
- NC State (10-2 ACC)
- @Boston College (2-9 ACC)
- @Syracuse (9-3 ACC)
NC State (20-3 Conference Record) – 22 Delegates
In her first season in Raleigh, junior setter Kylie Pickrell has become the missing piece to bring the Wolfpack together. The team leads the ACC in assists this year and rank 24th nationally in assists/set. The Wolfpack were an under-the-radar 10-5 in the ACC last year, and this season they’re 30 points better in offensive hitting percentage (.256-.226). Although it’s her first year with the program, she previously played under head coach Linda Hampton-Keith at Arizona State, so she’s familiar with the systems and schemes that the Wolfpack run, which has helped her transition.
The team has been better at home than on the road. They play their next 4 at home, and then finish with 4 straight on the road. Fortunately, only one of those (Louisville) is against a top-5 ACC team, but there’s an opportunity to stumble there in an otherwise-friendly closing run.
Remaining games (conference record):
- Syracuse (9-3 ACC)
- Boston College (2-9 ACC)
- Clemson (2-10 ACC)
- Georgia Tech (6-6 ACC)
- @Louisville (10-2 ACC)
- @Notre Dame (6-6 ACC)
- @Duke (7-5 ACC)
- @Wake Forest (3-9 ACC)
Miami (8-4 Conference Record) – 17 delegates
Among the contenders, the streaky Miami Hurricanes have by far the easiest schedule remaining. The Hurricanes started out the year as one of the final teams to lose a game (they were 9-0 entering ACC play), but started with 3-straight losses against conference opponents. They’ve righted the ship, thoguh, and gone 5-1 since, including a 3-0 sweep on Sunday against pre-season favorites North Carolina.
If the Hurricanes can beat a slumping Florida State team on Wednesday evening, they can almost consider Friday’s game against Pitt as their make-or-break game for the season: a win, and they stay in the hunt for the title and an NCAA bid. A loss, and they’re probably out for both. The Hurricanes could well run the table, though, especially if they keep up their hot hitting – they’ve hit .300-or-better in 3 of their last 5 games. A 3-2 loss against Notre Dame on October 22nd could come back to haunt them.
Miami holds the tie-breaker over NC State, Louisville holds the tie-breaker over Miami, and Miami-Pitt will depend on the outcome of Friday’s game (Pitt holds a 1-0 edge head-to-head).
Remaining games (conference record):
- Florida St. (6-6 ACC)
- @Pitt (10-2 ACC)
- Boston College (2-9 ACC)
- Syracuse (9-3 ACC)
- @Virginia (1-11 ACC)
- @Virginia Tech (2-9 ACC)
- @Georgia Tech (6-6 ACC)
- @Clemson (2-10 ACC)
Pitt (10-2 Conference Record)- 17 delegates
The Pitt Panthers have a better recent pedigree than most of the teams in the top 5, and have played well after the loss of star middle blocker Jenna Potts after last season. The feat here is that the team is slumping (they’ve lost 2 of their last 3 games). What really hurts the Panthers is that, in spite of their record, their two losses are to NC State and Louisville: the other two 10-2 teams. That means they’ll lose the tie-breaker against both teams. While we think that Pitt might ultimately end up with a better record than Miami (that picture will be clearer on next week’s update), the tie-breaker scenario makes it unlikely that they’ll get the auto bid to the NCAA tournament.
Remaining games (conference record):
- Miami (8-4 ACC)
- Florida State (6-6 ACC)
- Wake Forest (3-9 ACC)
- Duke (7-5 ACC)
- @Clemson (2-10 ACC)
- @Georgia Tech (6-6 ACC)
- @Virginia Tech (2-9 ACC)
- @Virginia (1-11 ACC)
Syracuse (9-3 Conference Record) – 10 delegates
The Orange are having a fine season, and have blown well past their 7-23 (6-14 ACC) record from last year – which they should be proud of. The big factor working against the Orange is that among the contenders, they have the toughest schedule remaining. Wake Forest is the only of the 8 teams they face down the stretch who has a losing record in ACC play. It’s going to be tough to win the 6+ games they’ll need to lock up the conference crown.
Remaining games (conference record):
- @NC State (10-2 ACC)
- @UNC (6-6 ACC)
- @Florida State (6-6 ACC)
- @Miami (8-4 ACC)
- Wake Forest (3-9 ACC)
- Duke (7-5 ACC)
- Notre Dame (6-6 ACC)
- Louisville (10-2 ACC)
UNC (7-5 Conference Record) – 5 delegates
The streaky Tar Heels were ranked very high to start the season, and after opening the year 0-4 (including a loss to Auburn as the black eye), they stumbled toward ACC play. After a few early losses, it appears as though UNC may have righted the ship with a 5-game losing streak, but now they’ve been swept consecutively 3-0 by Pitt, Florida State, and Miami. UNC has the talent to go on a big run, and the ACC title is winnable with 5 losses, but it’s hard to know which UNC team will show up.
Remaining games (conference record):
- Boston College (2-9 ACC)
- Syracuse (9-3 ACC)
- Georgia Tech (6-6 ACC)
- Clemson (2-10 ACC)
- @Notre Dame (6-6 ACC)
- @Louisville (10-2 ACC)
- @Wake Forest (3-9 ACC)
- @Duke (7-5 ACC)
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