With a chance to catch our collective breath in between two wild opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament and a regional weekend that promises even more drama, we get a chance to take stock of the tournament so far:
12 Seeded Teams In Sweet 16
There were only 4 upsets of seeded programs in the first two rounds, all coming in round 2. Unseeded Creighton had the biggest, knocking off #5 Kansas. Arizona outlasted #9 Michigan State in five sets, as did Florida State with bitter rivals #11 Florida and Ohio State against #14 Kansas State. Three of the four will take on even higher-seeded teams in the next round.
Arizona moves from playing the 9-seed to facing 8-seeded Washington. The difference this week is that the match takes place on neutral ground (in Lincoln, Nebraska) instead of last week’s upset at Michigan State.
Florida State jumps up to face a #6 Stanford team that hasn’t lost a set yet, but once again, the match will be on a neutral court in Wisconsin. Ohio State gets the toughest draw of the unseeded teams, facing #3 Wisconsin in front of a rowdy Madison crowd.
By virtue of beating such a high seed last round, Creighton actually gets a respite of sorts. They’ll face #12 Michigan in Austin, Texas.
As of the third round, the 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 15 and 16 seeds remain, with only 5, 9, 11 and 14 knocked out.
Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?
Every team in the third round has won at least two matches straight. But a few have been far more dominant than others. 7 teams are a perfect 6-0 in sets, having swept their first two matches of the tournament: BYU, Minnesota, Washington, Stanford, Texas, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Here’s the full list of each team’s set record for the tournament, plus their current win streak in matches:
| Sets | Streak | |
| BYU | 6-0 | 13 |
| Minnesota | 6-0 | 12 |
| Washington | 6-0 | 9 |
| Stanford | 6-0 | 6 |
| Texas | 6-0 | 5 |
| Nebraska | 6-0 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 6-0 | 2 |
| UNC | 6-1 | 10 |
| Missouri | 6-1 | 6 |
| Penn State | 6-1 | 5 |
| Michigan | 6-1 | 2 |
| UCLA | 6-1 | 3 |
| Florida State | 6-2 | 8 |
| Ohio State | 6-2 | 4 |
| Arizona | 6-2 | 2 |
| Creighton | 6-4 | 22 |
There’s no team in the nation hotter than BYU, which has won 13 consecutive matches, including tournament sweeps of Princeton and UNLV. Minnesota isn’t far behind, and actually beat two of the 6-0 teams (Nebraska and Wisconsin) to finish the regular season. Keep an eye on North Carolina, which is on a 10-match win streak and has dropped just a single set so far.
The really odd case is Creighton, which has squeaked out two five-set wins over very wildly different opponents. Narrowly escaping UNI 3-2 in the first round felt like an ominous sign, but Creighton then upset #5 Kansas by the same score. The Bluejays are riding a 22-match win streak, but it’s worth noting that 20 of those wins came over the Big East – 18 in the regular season and two in the conference tournament. Still, the team’s last loss was way back on September 17 to #1-seeded Nebraska.
Unsurprisingly, it’s the four unseeded teams with the toughest roads so far in terms of set scores.
The Round of Conference Rematches
With zero intra-conference matches in the first two rounds, we get three big ones this weekend. Arizona looks to keep its upset run alive by facing Pac-12 champs Washington. #16 Penn State faces #1 Nebraska in a battle of the past two NCAA Championship teams. But maybe the most exciting showdown is unseeded Ohio State at #3 Wisconsin. Ohio State was just .500 in the Big Ten, but has a nose for upsets – OSU was one of just two teams in the nation to beat #1 Nebraska this season.
Here’s how each of the conference rematches went in regular season play:
| Matchup | First Meeting | Second Meeting |
| Washington vs Arizona | Washington 3-1 | Washington 3-0 |
| Nebraska vs Penn State | Nebraska 3-2 | Nebraska 3-0 |
| Wisconsin vs Ohio State | Wisconsin 3-0 | Wisconsin 3-0 |
In the other 5 matchups, we’ve got some unique conference combinations. The Big Ten takes on the SEC champs (#2 Minnesota vs #15 Missouri) and the Big East champs (#12 Michigan vs Creighton). The lone remaining teams from the Big 12 and West Coast Conference collide (#4 Texas vs #13 BYU). And we get two ACC vs Pac-12 matches, with the two teams that tied for 2nd in the Pac-12 facing the ACC champs (#7 UNC vs #10 UCLA) and ACC runners-up (#6 Stanford vs Florida State).
Potential Upsets
In terms of seeding, the closest match in the round should be #7 UNC vs #10 UCLA. With how well the Pac-12 conference has done in the tournament so far (10-4 overall), a UCLA win wouldn’t be a huge surprise.
#4 Texas has looked as good as can be, but it’s hard to forget that the team’s last loss was a very winnable Iowa State match. BYU is very good, and hasn’t lost since early October. It’s still Texas’s match to lose, especially at home, but an upset could be in the cards for the Cougars.
Creighton’s win over Kansas means they should have at least a fighting chance against Michigan, though the Wolverines are far more battle-tested from a brutal Big Ten than Kansas was in the Big 12. Ohio State-Wisconsin might be the match with the most intrigue, given Ohio State’s regular season win over Nebraska and the two teams familiarity with one another.
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