Nebraska in Grand Position in Big Ten Title Breakdown (Oct. 31)

With 8 games left in the 2017 Big Ten regular season schedule, a traditional 3-team battle is shaping up for the conference crown. After 2-straight seasons with Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin finishing as the top 3 in some order, the #1-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions and their potent offense currently sit atop the conference with an 11-1 record. Nebraska, who was supposed to be in a rebuilding year, sit right alongside them, with another young team, Minnesota, not far back at 10-2.

While all 3 teams are basically assured of a spot in the NCAA tournament in December, the conference champion (decided by regular season standings) still carries significant weight. For starters, being widely regarded as the best or second-best conference in the country, the Big Ten champion will be guaranteed hosting duties through the Elite 8 of the NCAA tournament (if they advance that far).

Breakdown below the table.

Big Ten Standings as of October 31

Just like it did last year, this year’s Big Ten title race should go down to the wire – thanks to a Penn State vs. Minnesota battle to complete the season. But, based strictly on view of the schedule, it’s actually Nebraska that has the most likely route to the title. Their Big Ten schedule was front-loaded, including a 3-0 sweep of Penn State, which gives them a massive advantage – head-to-head is the first tie-breaker, and those two teams only play once.

Favorites: Nebraska (11-1 Conference)

The Cornhuskers don’t have quite a full downhill roll, but their remaining schedule in Big Ten play is as easy as anybody’s. Their remaining 8 games include 6 against the 6 lowest-ranked teams in the Big Ten, including 5-7 Maryland (who started out hot but have been slammed by injuries). The one stumbling block is 17-5 Purdue, who have played well in spurts this season. Purdue won their first matchup 3-1 (in West Lafayette), so if they can get through that game with the tremendous home court advantage of the Devaney Center, the Huskers should run the table. If they run the table, they’re Big Ten champions.

Remaining Schedule (Big Ten record):

• Purdue (7-5)
• Indiana (1-11)
• Maryland (5-7)
• Rutgers (0-12)
• @Ohio State (5-7)
• @Maryland (5-7)
• @Northwestern (3-9)
• Iowa (4-8)

Top Contenders: Penn State (11-1 Conference)

Thanks to that head-to-head loss, Penn State could be the #1 team in the country and the top seed for the NCAA tournament at the end of the regular season without winning the Big Ten title. But they’ve got a few more challenges coming. Michigan State, who are the ‘best of the rest,’ in East Lansing, is coming up on Wednesday for the Nittany Lions. If they can get through that, they’ve got a pretty easy 5-game run (that includes 2 against Rutgers) before finishing the season against Wisconsin and Minnesota. On paper, neither of those teams are as good as they were last year, but both have an all-world freshman (Dana Rettke and Stephanie Samedy, respectively) and both should finish the season better than they started it. Those games are also both on the road. While Penn State has been on a tear this year, and are the latest favorites to win it all, the odds of them losing are much higher than the odds of Nebraska losing.

Make no mistake – come tournament time, Penn State is probably the best candidate from the Big Ten to win it all. While almost the entire conference is rebuilding, they have a supremely veteran roster. But their shot at the conference title is not great.

Remaining Schedule (Big Ten record):

• @Michigan State (9-3)
• Rutgers (0-12)
• @Iowa (4-8)
• Maryland (5-7)
• Indiana (1-11)
• @Rutgers (0-12)
• @Wisconsin (6-6)
• @Minnesota (10-2)

Puncher’s Chance: Minnesota (10-2 Conference)

Even just 1 game out, with Nebraska’s remaining schedule, it seems unlikely that Minnesota can sneak into the title conversation. Nebraska has a tie-breaking-win-in-hand against Minnesota as well, so it would take 2 Cornhusker losses for Minnesota to dance back in to the title conversation.

The biggest remaining challenges are Purdue (whom Minnesota beat 3-0 in their first matchup). With Brandi Donnelley making steps to returning to the court, the game against Illinois becomes a tricky one (neither Nebraska nor Penn State have to face the Illini – who are on a 3-match losing streak since losing their star libero, but were in the title hunt before that). That final match against Penn State could determine 2nd in the Big Ten. Even with a Minnesota win, Penn State probably gets the better seed come tournament time, but if the Gophers run the table, they could sneak in for an Elite 8 hosting spot.

Remaining Schedule (Big Ten record):

• Maryland
• Ohio State
• @Purdue
• @Indiana
• @Northwestern
• @Illinois
• Rutgers
• Penn State

Outside Looking In: Michigan State (9-3 Conference)

Since losing to Penn State 3-1 on October 13th, Michigan State has won 4 of their last 5 games. The Spartans have had a schedule giving them ample opportunities to play into the conference title conversation, and while they beat Minnesota, they dropped 2 to Nebraska and 1 to Penn State. They’ve got another Penn State coming up this Wednesday (this time at home), and a win there would solidify their spot as a national seed. So too would running the table after a Penn State loss. Michigan State should be favored in the last 7 games of the season, a scenario in which they’ve done well this season, but that’s not to say it will be an easy rod. They still play Illinois (again, who are better if Donnelly is back); in-state rivals Michigan; and streaky Penn State.

But the Penn State game will be the make-or-break affair for the Spartans. A win means they’re in the conversation for a top-3 conference finish. A loss all-but-locks them in for 4th.

Big Ten Tie-Breaker Procedures (all positions)

TWO-TEAM TIE

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

2. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular season standings) continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• A. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• B. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1); in the case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000 the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

MULTIPLE-TEAM TIE

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.

• A. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1); in the case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000 the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.
• B. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

• A. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
• B. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1); in the case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000 the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.