Texas Chasing History Atop the Big 12 Standings (October 31, 2017)

The Texas Longhorns are in firm control of the Big 12 with a perfect 9-0 record in conference play so far this season. With 7 games to go, the Longhorns have a 2-game advantage in the loss column over Kansas and Baylor, who are each 8-2 (and have played 1 more conference game than the Longhorns).

Last year, Kansas took the Big 12 crown for the first time – breaking a 5-year Texas streak at the top of the table.

The Longhorns’ only losses this season are out-of-conference defeats at the hands of the Florida Gators and Minnesota Gophers – two teams that have spent time ranked #1 in the nation at different points this year.

Texas has some breathing room (the Big 12 doesn’t break ties and instead awards co-champions), and needs only 4 wins to ensure themselves a share of the conference crown.

The Big 12 is an incredibly top-heavy conference. The 4 teams at the top are 7-3 are better (Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State), while the conference’s other 5 teams are all 3-7 or worse.

Last year, 5 teams made the NCAA tournament out of the Big 12. This year, unless a team like West Virginia gets hot and knocks off a high profile team-or-two down the stretch (they play Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas still), that number will likely be 4: Texas, Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor (in that order, we will predict).

More analysis after the table:

Conference Title or Bust: Texas Longhorns (9-0 Conference Record)

If the Texas women didn’t get at least a share of the Big 12 title, it would be a serious disappointment – although Texas surely has loftier goals for 2017. 4 out of their last 5 games are against NCAA tournament teams from last year, so it won’t be a cake-walk to the win, but they have significant control over their outcome.

Only 2 programs on a combined 5 occasions have ever run the table in the Big 12 since the conference launched in 1996: Nebraska (2000, 20001, 2002, 2004) and Texas (2013). Texas has only dropped 5 sets in conference play through 9 games – although Kansas pushed them to a tie-breaker on October 11th.

Remaining Schedule (Conference Record):

• @Kansas State (2-8)
• Texas Tech (3-7)
• TCU (2-7)
• @Iowa State (7-3)
• Kansas (8-2)
• Oklahoma (2-8)
• @Baylor (8-2)

The Defending Champs: Kansas Jayhawks (8-2 Conference Record)

The Jayhawks missed a golden opportunity to put themselves in a repeat position on October 11th when they lost to Texas 3-2, including an 18-16 tie-break set (where the Jayhawks hit a whopping .400). That, combined with a 3-1 loss last Saturday to Iowa State, has left them in need of a big Texas collapse late to pick up more conference hardware. The Jayhawks were a serious national title threat, and maybe even favorites on some boards, until they decided to redshirt transfer Gabby Simpson (though, by all accounts, it was a prudent decision). For now, they set their eyes on a tough 8-day stretch in early November that has them play rivals Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas consecutively. Combined with a dangerous West Virginia team (who fought Texas tooth-and-nail in their Big 12 opener), there are some stumbling blocks between Kansas and a high seed in the NCAA tournament

Remaining Schedule (Conference Record):

• @TCU (2-7)
• Kansas State (2-8)
• #18 Baylor (8-2)
• @#5 Texas (9-0)
• @Texas Tech (3-7)
• West Virginia (3-7)

Finding their Balance: Baylor Bears (8-2 Conference Record)

Baylor is going to be a really scary early-round draw for a high seed at the NCAA tournament. Katie Staiger proved herself as an All-America caliber offensive weapon last year, and the team has found more balance to put around her this season (including freshman Yossiana Pressley).

If we take the Bears at their word that Staiger’s recent absence from the court is to prevent injury rather than because of it, then this is a team with Sweet 16 potential. They’ve won their last two, against Texas Tech and Oklahoma, in Staiger-less sweeps. Their schedule closing, like everyone on this list, will be challenging though. They play Kansas, Iowa State, and Texas (whomever made the Big 12 schedule this year did a masterful job of setting up a crescendo of big games for late in the season).

Remaining Schedule (Conference Record):

• TCU (2-7)
• #19 Iowa State (7-3)
• @#11 Kansas (8-2)
• Kansas State (2-8)
• @West Virginia (3-7)
• #5 Texas (9-0)

Big Mo’: Iowa State (7-3 Conference Record)

No, we’re not referring to senior setter Monique Harris (though she’s been playing very well lately – with 7 aces in her last 5 games). The Iowa State Cyclones, after a 3-1 defeat of Kansas last weekend, are on a 5-game winning streak. They had lost to the Jayhawks in the teams’ prior meeting last season.

After a mid-conference break against North Dakota on Monday, Iowa State will be back in action for a big one against Baylor on Saturday. If Iowa State wins that, then they will be in the catbird’s seat for 3rd place in the conference – not just because they would give Baylor a 3rd loss, but because Iowa State’s closing schedule is slightly easier, and they would’ve verified that the win over Kansas was a valid result.

Remaining Schedule:

• @#18 Baylor (8-2)
• @West Virginia (3-7)
• #5 Texas (9-0)
• @Oklahoma (2-8)
• @TCU (2-7)
• Texas Tech (3-7)

Outside Smoke: West Virginia (3-7 Conference Record)

While Texas Tech has a similar record, both have similar remaining schedules, and Tech has a game-in-hand, we lean toward West Virginia being the more likely to find a way to sneak into the NCAA tournament. Into her sophomore season, the team has pushed to find more balance around Payton Caffrey – who was one of the most-used freshman hitters in the country in 2016.

Last year, TCU made the tournament as a 7-9 Big 12 team. To get there, West Virginia would need 4 wins in their last 6 conference matches. Games against Oklahoma, Kansas State and a crucial rematch against Texas Tech are winnable. Then the mountaineers would have to pull off an upset against Iowa State, Baylor, or Kansas to get to 7-9. They pushed the Longhorns to a 5th set in September, so the potential is there.

Remaining Schedule (Conference Record):

• Robert Morris (non-conference)
• @Oklahoma (2-8)
• #19 Iowa State (7-3)
• Texas Tech (3-7)
• #18 Baylor (8-2)
• @Kansas State (2-8)
• @#11 Kansas (8-2)