The 2017 Women’s Division I NCAA Volleyball Tournament is here and following the 64 team field’s release yesterday, the committee gave away it’s last four in and first four out:
Last four in:
- NC State
- LSU
- High Point
- CofC
- Maryland
- Iowa
- Dayton
- North Texas
Were these the right choices though? Let’s take a dive into some of the numbers using some blind resumes.
| Record | RPI | SOS | vs. Top 25 | vs. 26-50 | vs. 51-100 | vs. 101-150 | vs. 150+ | Best Win | 2nd Best Win | Worst Loss | |
| Team A | 27-5 | 46 | 165 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4-1 | 18-0 | (N) #12 Baylor (3-2) | at #48 JMU (3-2) | at #125 Northeastern (1-3) |
| Team B | 23-8 | 51 | 85 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 16-0 | (N) #39 High Point (3-1) | at #63 Miami (OH) (3-2) | at #88 Illinois St. (0-3) |
| Team C | 24-7 | 39 | 68 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 4-2 | 2-1 | 18-0 | (N) #57 Georgia (3-1) | at #60 Radford (3-1) | at #127 UNCG (2-3) |
| Team D | 18-15 | 50 | 12 | 0-11 | 3-3 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 8-0 | vs. #29 Michigan (3-1) | at #44 Ohio State (3-0) | at #52 Maryland (1-3) |
| Team E | 20-9 | 45 | 65 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 9-4 | 1-0 | 9-0 | at #39 High Point (3-2) | at #53 Auburn (3-0) | vs. #91 Tennessee (0-3) |
| Team F | 18-14 | 52 | 34 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 3-0 | 5-0 | 7-0 | vs. #11 USC (3-0) | vs. #25 Purdue (3-2) | vs. #44 Ohio State (1-3) |
| Team G | 20-11 | 49 | 54 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 4-0 | 9-0 | at #27 Pittsburgh (3-1) | at #39 High Point (3-0) | at #81 Duke (2-3) |
| Team H | 28-3 | 47 | 223 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 3-2 | 18-0 | vs. #28 WKU (3-2) | vs. #31 Oregon St. (3-0) | at #122 So. Miss (2-3) |
Just based on looking at this blind resume, everyone is similar and undefeated against teams ranked 150+ in the RPI, so that’s basically null and void. Team F strikes my eye as being one who has 14 losses but from a brutal schedule as they’ve beaten all the lower end teams and even come up to beat more top 25 teams than any other team of the eight. Isn’t that what you want in the tournament, a team who’s proven they can beat the best – barring they don’t lose to really bad teams?
Team D is a bit similar to Team F with a rugged schedule but didn’t pull off any top 25 victories while both have the same amount of overall top 50 wins. However, Team F beat Team D to separate any further distinctions.
Team A looks solid as well with one of the better records in the bunch and one of the best wins. There are only four of the eight teams in this blind resume with three top 50 wins and Team A is one of them.
Team H also catches my eye with a strong record, a solid top two wins over NCAA Tournament teams and a pretty darn good 7-1 record vs. top 100 opponents. They do have two bad losses, but those two best wins are a better combination than most if not all of that bunch to offset it and combine with the best overall record.
Team C has the best RPI, but it looks like it came from feasting on teams who weren’t too good but weren’t bad enough to tank their RPI. Team B looks the most lackluster of the resumes without a huge victory and a 2-8 top 100 record. Team E doesn’t have a true marquee win but is close enough with everything to Team C, a team they beat, to put them ahead of them. Team G also beat Team C and had more top 50 wins than Team E with just as good of a best win.
Overall though, I’d go with Team A, Team F, Team G and Team H because A, F and H seemed to have a tad of separation. For G, they beat C and have a tougher schedule, more wins against NCAA Tournament teams and a better ‘best win’ than E.
So that’s based on blind resumes. How about we put a name to those generic teams:
*Note: Bolded teams made the NCAA Tournament’s field of 64*
| Record | RPI | SOS | vs. Top 25 | vs. 26-50 | vs. 51-100 | vs. 101-150 | vs. 150+ | Best Win | 2nd Best Win | Worst Loss | |
| College of Charleston | 27-5 | 46 | 165 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4-1 | 18-0 | (N) #12 Baylor (3-2) | at #48 JMU (3-2) | at #125 Northeastern (1-3) |
| Dayton | 23-8 | 51 | 85 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 16-0 | (N) #39 High Point (3-1) | at #63 Miami (OH) (3-2) | at #88 Illinois St. (0-3) |
| High Point | 24-7 | 39 | 68 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 4-2 | 2-1 | 18-0 | (N) #57 Georgia (3-1) | at #60 Radford (3-1) | at #127 UNCG (2-3) |
| Iowa | 18-15 | 50 | 12 | 0-11 | 3-3 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 8-0 | vs. #29 Michigan (3-1) | at #44 Ohio State (3-0) | at #52 Maryland (1-3) |
| LSU | 20-9 | 45 | 65 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 9-4 | 1-0 | 9-0 | at #39 High Point (3-2) | at #53 Auburn (3-0) | vs. #91 Tennessee (0-3) |
| Maryland | 18-14 | 52 | 34 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 3-0 | 5-0 | 7-0 | vs. #11 USC (3-0) | vs. #25 Purdue (3-2) | vs. #44 Ohio State (1-3) |
| NC State | 20-11 | 49 | 54 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 4-0 | 9-0 | at #27 Pittsburgh (3-1) | at #39 High Point (3-0) | at #81 Duke (2-3) |
| North Texas | 28-3 | 47 | 223 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 5-0 | 3-2 | 18-0 | vs. #28 WKU (3-2) | vs. #31 Oregon St. (3-0) | at #122 So. Miss (2-3) |
That means based on blind resume and just staring at numbers, I would have taken College of Charleston, Maryland, NC State and North Texas. That contrasts with what the committee had as Maryland and North Texas were left out.
High Point is the biggest question mark to me. That seems to be an over-reliance on the RPI from the committee in my opinion. If you just look at who they beat, Maryland and North Texas showed they can defeat top competition while High Point feasted on opponents who struggled enough to not make the NCAA Tournament but were good enough to not tank their RPI or strength of schedule. Additionally, Maryland’s worst LOSS came against an Ohio State team that would be High Point’s best WIN. North Texas did have two bad losses but had a better record vs. top 51-100 and top 50 teams in addition to downing a couple NCAA Tournament teams. That pick is a bit befuddling.
I didn’t pick LSU, but that one is less crazy. They went 9-4 vs. 51-100 RPI teams, with most closer to 50 because of plenty of bubble teams from the SEC. They also took down High Point. Overall though, North Texas and Maryland both have a better top two wins than LSU and have more top 50 wins. It’s not all about best wins, but in a case like North Texas where you are 7-1 vs. top 100 competition compared to 10-9 for LSU, have more top 50 wins and a better overall record it can be a head-scratcher. It also seems Maryland was penalized for playing in the most difficult conference while it simultaneously hurt their RPI having to play Rutgers once and Indiana twice.
This is just about the numbers though, so maybe eye test came into play. More likely than not though we can point back to the NCAA Tournament committee’s continued over-reliance on RPI. Of the group of eight discussed, the top three in RPI all made it with NC State (49) in fifth just behind North Texas at fourth (47) as a bit of an exception. The clearest indication is High Point, who had the best RPI of the bunch but don’t have much else on their side.
Let us know your thoughts on who you thought was snubbed or should’ve been left out of the field below or on Twitter (@VolleyMob).
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