Men’s Volleyball World Champs Scenarios for Sept. 23

(Updated Sunday morning after reviewing Serbia’s & Netherlands’s sets ratios)

With the matches on Saturday, September 22nd of the 2018 FIVB Volleyball Men’s World Championship in Italy and Bulgaria, Brazil, Italy, Serbia and the USA clinched their berths in the third round.

Going into the final day of play in the second round, 7 teams still have a chance at qualifying for the second round. We will now look at each pool and also which teams have the chance at the two second place berths in the third round.

Pool E

Italy has won the pool and has nothing to play for on Sunday

Russia (5-2, 15 points)

Best 2nd Place Berth

• WIN vs. Finland
• OR LOSE IN 5 vs. Finland AND
  • Poland LOSS IN 3 OR 4 SETS vs. Serbia
  • AND Belgium WIN IN 5 SETS
  • AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy
• May need a France LOSS as well

Netherlands

Best 2nd Place Berth

• WIN vs. Italy (preferably in 3 or 4 SETS)
• AND Poland LOSS IN 3 OR 4 SETS vs. Serbia
• OR Russia LOSS vs. Finland IN 3 OR 4 SETS
• IF Russia WIN, Netherlands are eliminated as they cannot beat Russia on sets ratio if tied on wins and points, Russia 2.100 (worst) and Netherlands 1.500 (best)

Finland has been eliminated

Pool F

Brazil has won the pool and has nothing to play for on Sunday

Belgium

Best 2nd Place Berth

• 1st Way
  • WIN vs. Brazil in 3 SETS
  • AND Poland LOSS vs. Serbia in 3 SETS
  • AND Russia LOSS vs. Finland in 3 OR 4 SETS
  • AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy in 3 OR 4 SETS
  • AND France LOSS vs. Argentina IN 3 OR 4 SETS
  • Belgium would have 5 wins, 16 points, Poland tied on wins and points, but Belgium would take sets ratio tiebreaker 1.545 to 1.500
  • Russia also tied on wins but 15 points and Netherlands tied on wins but 14 points
• 2nd Way
  • WIN vs. Brazil in 3 SETS
  • AND Poland WINS vs. Serbia
  • AND Russia LOSS vs. Finland in 3 OR 4 SETS
  • AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy in 3 OR 4 SETS
  • AND France LOSS vs. Argentina in 3 OR 4 SETS
  • Belgium would have 5 wins, 16 points, France tied on wins but 15 points,
  • Russia also tied on wins but 15 points and Netherlands tied on wins but 14 points

Slovenia has been eliminated as it cannot surpass Russia’s sets ratio if tied on win and points.

Australia has been eliminated

Pool G

USA has won the pool and has nothing to play for on Sunday.

Bulgaria

• WIN vs. Canada IN 3 OR 4 SETS
• AND Russia LOSS vs. Finland IN 3 or 4 SETS (if Bulgaria win in 4, then Russia must lose in 3)
• AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy
• AND France LOSS vs. Argentina
• AND Poland LOSS vs. Serbia
• AND Belgium LOSS vs. Brazil
• Bulgaria would be tied with Russia on 5 wins and 15 points, Bulgaria would have a better sets ratio, Netherlands also tied on wins but at 14 points

Iran has been eliminated as it cannot surpass Russia’s sets ratio if tied on win and points.

Canada has been eliminated as it cannot surpass Russia’s points if tied on wins

Pool H

Serbia (6-1, 17 points) has clinched at least one of the two best second place berths

1st Place in the Pool

• WIN vs. Poland

Best 2nd Place Berth

• LOSS vs. Poland

Poland

1st Place in the Pool

• WIN vs. Serbia
• If Poland WIN IN 5 SETS, Poland and Serbia are tied on 6 wins and 18 points, Poland would take sets ratio 1.909 to Serbia’s 1.833

Best 2nd Place Berth

• 1st Way
  • WIN 2 SETS vs. Serbia
  • AND France WIN vs. Argentina in 5 SETS
  • AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy
  • Netherlands cannot match on points to Poland’s 17 and France cannot surpass Poland’s sets ratio if tied on 5 wins and 17 points, Poland 1.667 to France’s 1.615
• 2nd Way
  • WIN 2 SETS vs. Serbia
  • AND France WIN vs. Argentina in 5 SETS
  • AND Russia LOSS vs. Finland
  • Russia cannot match on points to Poland’s 17 and France cannot surpass Poland’s sets ratio if tied on 5 wins and 17 points, Poland 1.667 to France’s 1.615
• 3rd Way
  • France LOSS vs. Argentina
  • AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy
  • AND Belgium WIN vs. Brazil in 4 SETS OR LOSS vs. Brazil
  • Teams cannot match Poland on 5 wins and 16 points
• 4th Way
  • France LOSS vs. Argentina
  • AND Russia LOSS vs. Finland
  • AND Belgium WIN vs. Brazil in 4 SETS OR LOSS vs. Brazil
  • Teams cannot match Poland on 5 wins and 16 points

France

Best 2nd Place Berth

• 1st Way
  • WIN vs. Argentina IN 3 OR 4 SETS
  • AND Netherlands LOSS vs. Italy
  • Netherlands could not match France’s points 18 if tied on 5 wins
• 2nd Way
  • WIN vs. Argentina IN 3 OR 4 SETS
  • AND Russia LOSS vs. Finland
  • Russia could not match France’s points 18 if tied on 5 wins

Argentina has been eliminated