With the number of upsets in this year’s World League, it has been very hard to figure out which teams outside of France and Serbia are going to Brazil for the Group 1 Finals. Sunday could still be crazy, but here are the possibilities for the teams in Group 1.
France currently at 7-1 with 22 points (Qualified)
After sweeping the first two weekends, France was the first to book their ticket to Brazil. Will finish in 1st place after Serbia’s loss to Bulgaria.
Serbia at 6-2 with 18 points (Qualified)
Serbia’s win over Argentina on Friday booked their ticket. Will finish in second or third, depending on their match with Brazil on Sunday.
Brazil at 5-3 with 16 points in as Finals hosts (Qualified)
Belgium at 4-4 with 14 points
Belgium will play France in their final match on Sunday. If Belgium win they are in. A loss forces them to root for Poland, Russia, Bulgaria and Canada to lose. If three of those win, Belgium is out (5 wins to 4).
Poland at 4-4 with 12 points
Poland plays the USA on Sunday. A win in 3 or 4 sets and they are going to Brazil. A loss means that Belgium and USA will finish in front of them, not including other results. Would need Russia, Bulgaria and Canada to lose if that happens.
Russia at 4-4 with 11 points
Must beat Iran in 3 or 4 sets to go to Brazil. A 5 set win and they will beat Bulgaria if tied on match points with the sets ratio. Also, Canada would not catch Russia if Canada won. If they lose, they need all three of Poland (less than 5 sets), Bulgaria and Canada to lose to go to Brazil.
Bulgaria at 4-4 with 10 points
Must beat Argentina in 3 or 4 and have three of the following lose, Belgium, Poland, Russia or Canada (5 wins to 4)
Canada at 4-4 with 9 points
Canada must win in 3 or 4 sets, and need Belgium, Poland, Russia, and Bulgaria to lose (yes all of them, 5 wins to 4). The reasoning for all of them to lose is that Canada is so far behind on match points and if they get to 5 wins and everyone else only gets to 4 wins means they would go to Brazil.
USA at 3-5 with 11 points
Must beat Poland to stay alive. Better if in 3 or 4 sets though. If tied on wins and points, USA has a better sets ratio than many teams. Need losses from three teams from Belgium, Russia, Bulgaria or Canada, to tie at 4 wins. If Belgium wins 2 sets, USA cannot match (15 match points to 14). USA would overtake all others if Russia, Bulgaria, and Canada lose in 5 sets. USA loss and they are eliminated.
Iran can get to 4 wins, but they can only reach a maximum of 10 points and have been eliminated.