M World Champs Scenarios for Sept. 18

  0 Jeremy Brahm | September 17th, 2018 | Asian Volleyball, Brazilian Volleyball, Canadian Volleyball, European volleyball, International Volleyball, News, NORCECA volleyball, South American Volleyball, U.S. Men's National Team

Going into the final day of play in the first round of the 2018 FIVB Volleyball Men’s World Championship in Italy and Bulgaria, there is only one spot remaining between two teams, Argentina and Japan to reach the second round. However, there are still plenty of matches which will affect the final positions in each pool and also which teams will face each other in the second round. We’ll start with Pool A.

Pool A

Italy (4-0, 12 points) as the hosts are in first place and face Slovenia. Italy have clinched first place as even a 3-0 by Slovenia would still give the Italians a better sets ratio (3.000 to 2.000).

Belgium (3-2, 10 points) are in second place and need the following to stay in second:

  • Slovenia LOSS vs. Italy
  • Belgium holds sets ratio tiebreaker even if the match goes 5 sets (1.375 to 1.300) if the teams are tied on points

Slovenia (3-1, 9 points) is in third place and need the following to finish in second place:

  • WIN vs. Italy
  • Slovenia would reach 4 wins, more than Belgium’s 3

Now for the head-to-head battle between Argentina and Japan for the final berth in the second round.

Argentina (2-2, 5 points) needs the following to happen to finish in fourth place:

  • WIN 2 SETS vs. Japan
  • Pushes Argentina to 6 points and Japan can win (reaching 2 wins, tying Argentina) but only reach 5 points

Japan (1-3, 3 points) needs the following to happen to finish in fourth place:

  • WIN vs. Argentina IN 3 OR 4 SETS
  • Japan will reach 2 wins and 6 points, while Argentina would only have 5 points (tied on wins at 2)

Pool B

Netherlands (4-1, 11 points) have finished their pool matches and are in first place going into the final day. Here is what the Netherlands needs to finish in first place:

  • Brazil LOSS vs. China
  • AND France WIN vs. Canada

Brazil holds the sets ratio tiebreaker if Brazil WIN IN 3 OR 4 SETS vs. China over the Netherlands (tied at 4 wins and 11 points). Canada also holds the sets ratio tiebreaker over the Netherlands if they are tied on 4 wins and points at 11.

Canada (3-1, 9 points) have the highest points possible at 12 if they beat France in 3 or 4 sets. Here are Canada’s scenarios for first place:

  • WIN vs. France in 3 or 4 SETS
  • Gets Canada to 4 wins and 12 points overtaking the Netherlands at 4 wins and 11 points
  • OR WIN vs. France in 5 SETS AND Brazil GOES 5 SETS
  • Gets Canada to 4 wins and 11 points, tying the Netherlands, but take the sets ratio (2.167 to 1.500)
  • OR WIN vs. France in 5 SETS AND Brazil WINS IN 4 SETS
  • Canada, Netherlands and Brazil all tied at 4 wins and 11 points, Canada takes sets ratio (2.167, BRA 1.857, NED 1.500)
  • OR WIN vs. France in 5 SETS AND Brazil WINS IN 3 SETS
  • Canada, Netherlands and Brazil all tied at 4 wins and 11 points, Canada and Brazil are tied on sets ratio (2.167) with Netherlands is third (1.500), it goes to points ratio for Canada and Brazil. Canada is ahead by 11 points right now, so it could flip in the other direction

Brazil (3-1, 8 points) need the following to finish first:

  • WIN vs. China IN 3 OR 4 SETS AND France WIN vs. Canada
  • Gets them to 4 wins and 11 points, tying Netherlands on wins and points and jumping past them on sets ratio (2.167 or 1.857 to Netherlands 1.500)
  • OR WIN vs. China IN 3 OR 4 SETS AND Canada WIN IN 5 SETS
  • Canada, Netherlands and Brazil all tied at 4 wins and 11 points, Canada and Brazil are tied on sets ratio (2.167) with Netherlands is third (1.500), it goes to points ratio for Canada and Brazil. Canada is ahead by 11 points right now, so it could flip in the other direction

France (2-2, 8 points) cannot finish first, but could finish second with:

  • Brazil LOSS vs. China
  • AND France WIN vs. Canada IN 3 OR 4 SETS
  • France, Canada and Brazil would tie on 3 wins, but France would reach 11 points, while Brazil and Canada would be at 9 points or less (Brazil at 8 points now)

If France beats Canada in 5 sets, they cannot overtake the Canadians on sets ratio.

Pool C

The USA (4-0, 10 points) face Tunisia in their final match of pool play. Here is what has to happen for the USA to win Pool C.

  • WIN vs. Tunisia
  • USA would be perfect at 5-0 and neither Serbia nor Russia can beat that

Serbia (3-1, 10 points) needs the following to finish first in the pool:

  • Tunisia WIN vs. USA
  • AND Serbia WIN vs. Russia
  • Serbia and USA would tie on wins, but Serbia would have 12 points to the USA’s 10 or 11 points

Russia (3-1, 9 points) need the following to finish first in the pool:

  • Tunisia WIN vs. USA
  • AND Russia WIN vs. Serbia
  • Russia and USA would tie on wins, but Russia would have 11 points to the USA’s 10 or 11 points
  • If tied on wins and points, Russia would have a better sets ratio than USA (2.600 to 1.750)

If the USA wins vs. Tunisia, the winner of the Serbia vs. Russia match will finish second as both teams are tied at 3 wins.

Australia (2-3, 7 points) have already finished their matches in the first round and will finish in fourth place.

Pool D

Poland (4-0, 12 points) are in the drivers seat and need the following to win the pool:

  • WIN 2 SETS vs. Bulgaria
  • Poland would reach 13 points, and neither Bulgaria or Iran could match that point total on 4 wins

Bulgaria (3-1, 9 points) need the following to win the pool:

  • WIN IN 3 OR 4 SETS vs. Poland
  • Bulgaria would tie on 4 wins and 12 points with Poland, but Bulgaria has the sets ratio tiebreaker (4.333 or 3.250 to Poland’s 2.600 or 2.400)
  • Iran could tie on wins and points but cannot match Bulgaria’s sets ratio scores (Iran can only reach 2.400)

Iran (3-1, 9 points) cannot finish in first due to sets ratios against Bulgaria. Iran has a chance at second with the following:

  • WIN vs. Finland
  • AND Poland WIN vs. Bulgaria
  • Iran would finish with 4 wins to Bulgaria’s 3 wins
  • OR Poland WIN in 3 OR 4 SETS vs. Bulgaria AND IRAN LOSE IN 5 SETS
  • Iran would outpoint Bulgaria 10-9

Finland are stuck in fourth position and cannot improve.

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